Well, here we are at the All-Star break so what better time to summarize the Orioles 2009 season than at the halfway point. So yeah…this could will be a long post. First things first, I have to preface this post by mentioning that I couldn’t care less about the Orioles record this year. No one (including the front office) expected the Orioles to contend or even come close to contending this year. When COO and GM Andy Macphail took over in 2007 he said he didn’t expect to put a contender on the field until 2010 at the earliest. The key to this season for the O’s is progress…on the major league club and in the minors. So if you go by that judgment scale, the first half of ’09 has to be seen as a success. So let’s break it down:
Overall Summary:
At the break, the Orioles are 40-48 and 14 games behind the Red Sox in the AL East, while sitting 11 games back of the Yankees for the Wild Card spot. The AL East is the only division in baseball that a 40-48 record puts you in last place. As a matter of fact, a 40-48 record would put the Orioles only 7.5 games out in the NL Central, and of course if the O’s were playing in that division they would undoubtedly have a better record due to, well, playing in a weaker division. It’s interesting to note that against the 3 best teams in the AL (Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels) the Orioles sport a 5-17 record, making them 35-31 against everyone else. So that tells just how far away this team is from competing with the best, but also how the current record may be a little deceptive. It’s also interesting to note that the O’s are 13-12-4 in their 29 series up to this point, so obviously those series losses have been pretty rough. At the friendly confines of Camden Yards, the Orioles are 26-21, but on the road are a dreadful 14-27. The Orioles had a second straight successful interleague campaign in 2009 matching last year’s 11-7 record. This year the O’s faced off against the NL East and won 5 out of 6 series with the sweep by the Marlins being that only series loss. And finally the O’s pythagorean win-loss record is 39-49 meaning they’re playing right around what their run differential would expect.
Jones, Scott, and Markakis
Offensive Summary:
This has probably been the most disappointing part or the Orioles season. The offense was picked by many to be up with the likes of the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers as one of the best in the AL. It hasn’t worked out that way. Despite having the 8th best batting average in all of baseball, the Orioles have scored the 10th most runs in the American League (out of 14 teams). The top 3 guys in the lineup all started out red-hot (Roberts, Markakis, and Jones) but have all cooled off considerably the last few months. Aubrey Huff isn’t showing the power he did last year when he won the Silver Slugger award for DHs and led the AL in extra base hits. Melvin Mora has been horrendous, showing a major drop off from last year. Luke Scott has probably been the Orioles MVP to this point with his 18 HRs and 51 RBI along with a .305 batting average and .976 OPS making it possible for the O’s to have the best DH in the league 2 years in a row. Nolan Reimold has come up and solidified himself as the Orioles LF for years to come and created a very exciting outfield. After a slow start, uber-prospect Matt Wieters has started to come around and allowed Greg Zaun to move to the back-up catcher role causing Greg to be much more successful in his starts. Adam Jones is having the breakout season many predicted and was the Orioles lone representative in the All-Star game driving in the winning run for the American League.
Pitching Summary:
The pitching staff is what was holding this team back from being able to be considered a contender and really, no surprises here as the staff ERA is 28th in baseball and 13th in the AL. Easily the story of the starting rotation has been a lack of being able to pitch deep into games, which in turn has killed the bullpen. The rotation has certainly seen some turnover, as 4 different rookies have been called on thus far to contribute. Staff “ace” and opening day starter Jeremy Guthrie has been miserable sporting a 6-8 record and a 5.35 ERA while giving up 20 (!) home runs. The best pitcher and biggest surprise has easily been rookie Brad Bergesen. He is 6-3 with a 3.54 ERA which puts him in the top 20 in ERA in the AL and in his last 9 starts he is 5-1 with a 2.35 ERA. At this point he is one of the leading contenders for Rookie of the Year, along with fellow Oriole Nolan Reimold. But if there is a positive to be taken from this year’s staff, it would be that the Orioles have given up the 5th fewest walks in all of baseball and 3rd fewest in the AL, which is a huge turn around from previous seasons (not having Daniel Cabrera around any longer is a huge help).
Minor League Summary:
The progress of some of the O’s minor leaguers is what the real focus of 2009 is in determining it’s success or not. Through the first half of ’09 it’s going about as good as anyone could have expected. Brad Bergesen, David Hernandez, and Jason Berken have all been called up to join the Orioles rotation and have seen some success, although Berken’s time may be running short. Nolan Reimold was promoted from AAA after crushing the ball down in Norfolk and has been very impressive inserting himself into the O’s every day line up. And of course, Matt Wieters got his highly anticipated call up and is doing about as good as can be expected for a 23 year old who is trying to learn the hardest position in baseball while only playing a little over one full season in the minors. In fact, Wieters made it to the majors faster than any other starting catcher in the majors right now, by about 100 minor league games…so some growing pains are to be expected but he has looked pretty impressive to this point.
But the key to the Oriole’s success in upcoming seasons is the development of the “Big 3” pitchers, Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, and Jake Arrieta. At this point, none of these guys has done anything to lower their highly regarded prospect status, and really they have all probably increased it. Tillman and Matusz were each invited to participate in the MLB Futures Game over All-Star weekend (Tillman started the game). Arrieta already had his Future’s Game experience being invited to participate in the 2008 version. So let’s throw some stats out there:
Chris Tillman
In AAA Norfolk, Chris Tillman is 7-5 with a 2.50 ERA in 16 starts. In 86.1 innings, he has 88 strikeouts and only 22 walks. Quick math…that’s a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio (which is very good). He still needs to work on going deeper into games as averaging only 5.1 innings or so per start isn’t exactly a glowing statistic. However, people keep forgetting this guy just turned 21 which is ridiculously young to be putting up these kind of numbers in AAA. There are rumors of a promotion to the bigs within the next month, but there’s no doubt he will be called up sometime this season.
Jake Arrieta started the year in AA Bowie and after posting a 6-3 record and a 2.59 ERA got promoted to AAA but after 7 starts is struggling a bit thanks to a couple lousy starts boosting his AAA ERA to 4.42 with a 2-3 record. But overall, his stats sit at 8-6 with a 3.29 ERA with 103 strikeouts to go with 34 walks in 95.2 innings coming in 18 starts. It was obvious he was too good for AA, but it’s also obvious he could use a little more time in AAA before getting the call up to Baltimore. A September call up seems possible for the 23 year old, and considering many scouts think he could be the best of the “Big 3”, I would love to see what he could do in a few starts for the O’s later this year.
And finally, I’m saving the best stats for last. Brian Matusz has been absolutely sick in the first half of ’09. Last years first round pick started this year in High-A Fredrick and after a slow start went 4-2 with a 2.16 ERA in 11 starts. He got the promotion to AA and has since gone 4-0 with, get this, a 0.34 ERA! Dating back to his last couple starts in Fredrick, Matusz has allowed 1 earned run in his last 50 or so innings…nasty. Totals on the season put Matusz at 8-2 with a 1.65 (!) ERA with 107 Ks and 27 BBs in 93 innings over just 15 starts. Good Lord. He is easily, easily, a major league pitcher right now, but at only 22 and just 15 freakin’ starts into his professional career, the Orioles have already said they will not promote him to Baltimore this year as tempting as it may seem. That means, if he can continue to pitch like this, Matusz has a very good shot at being the Minor League Player of the Year, which would of course be the second straight season for an Oriole to win that award.
Baseball America recently released it’s Midseason Top Prospects list which serves as an update to the pre-season list taking out any players who have since graduated to the majors. Wieters was #1 on the preseason list, but is now with the Orioles so is no longer listed, but in the updated list Tillman and Matusz moved up to #8 and #9, respectively. That puts them as the #2 and #3 pitching prospects in all of baseball…2 of the top 3 pitching prospects are in the Orioles system…i just love saying that. Also of note is Jake Arrieta who did not make the top 25 but is listed as one of The Next 25 (in alphabetical order) and considering only 20 pitchers were included total between the 50 players, the O’s safely have 3 of the top 20 pitching prospects in the game, but that’s probably being conservative.
Brandon Snyder
There are of course plenty other happenings in the minors so far this year but the other minor leaguer I want to make note of is 2005’s first round pick Brandon Snyder. Last year at this time, Snyder was being talked about as a bust, but after posting a breakout season in High-A Fredrick he was back on the map as a legit prospect and started 2009 in AA Bowie. In 80 games in Bowie, Snyder hit .343 with 10 HRs and 45 RBI sporting a 1.018 OPS. The O’s front office decided to go ahead and move him up to AAA to see what he can do, but he has hit a wall a bit only hitting .217 with 1 HR and 15 driven in. Drafted as a catcher, Snyder was moved to a corner infield spot and considering the opening at 3B with Mora’s departure after this year, and a likely opening at 1B if Huff isn’t re-signed, the front office needs to see if Brandon could slide into one of those positions. He’ll probably need most of next year in AAA as well, but he has been a huge lift to the O’s system struggling to find big time position prospects after Wieters and Reimold.
The Rest of 2009:
The big thing for the remainder of 2009 is to see if the Orioles can avoid another late season collapse that seems to happen every single year. With progress being the major measuring stick for 2009, another collapse would probably cause this season to be looked on as another failure, but if the team can still remain fairly competitive, 2009 will go end with some very big smiles on the faces of O’s fans and the front office. With the development of the minor leagues, I think there is much more depth to the Orioles in ’09 that can help avoid another late season swoon. However, with the possible trades of Aubrey Huff and closer George Sherrill, along with some other guys at the deadline, a little struggle down the stretch would probably be expected. Whatever the case, I don’t really care what the record says at the end of the year, I just want to see a team on the field that gives me hope for the future. And to this point in 2009, I’m not disappointed.
A Round of Sound 